Budget Cuts’ Impact May Be Difficult to See Right Away





WASHINGTON — Seventeen months after President Obama signed doomsday budget legislation that was never intended to become law, the sweeping spending reductions in the measure have been imposed.




Late Friday night, Mr. Obama formally triggered spending cuts that will reach across the breadth of the federal government after he failed to persuade Congressional Republicans to replace them with a mix of cuts and tax increases.


In a 70-page report to Congress accompanying the order and detailing the reductions — agency by agency and program by program — Jeffrey D. Zients, Mr. Obama’s budget director, called them “deeply destructive to national security, domestic investments and core government functions.”


But even as the cuts become official, some of the immediate impact is difficult to see.


The process of trimming government budgets is slow and cumbersome, involving lengthy notifications to unions about temporary furloughs, reductions in overtime pay and cuts in grant financing to state and local programs. Less federal money will, over time, mean fewer government contracts with private companies. Reduced overtime for airport security checkpoint officers will make lines longer, eventually.


And so as the first weekend began for the new, slimmer government, little of that is evident yet.


Letters to governors, informing them of the smaller grants are beginning to go out, officials said. Shaun Donovan, the secretary of housing and urban development, wrote to Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio: “You can expect reductions totaling approximately $35 million,” helpfully putting the amount in a bold type.


The Air Force Thunderbirds — the elite team of F-16 pilots who perform tricks at air shows — announced on its Web site that all of its shows have been canceled starting April 1. The last show will be in Titusville, Fla., on March 23.


Still, it will take some time, officials acknowledged, before the cuts begin to make life more difficult for teachers, defense contractors, Head Start students, border patrol agents or others who rely on the largess of the federal government.


Emerging from an Oval Office meeting on Friday with the lawmakers, the president called the cuts “just dumb.” He said they would slow the economic recovery and spoke emotionally about their impact on people who would feel the consequences of government layoffs and disruptions in public services.


“I don’t anticipate a huge financial crisis, but people are going to be hurt,” Mr. Obama said during a 35-minute news conference at the White House, in which he acknowledged that his campaign of highlighting fallout from the cuts had failed to persuade Republicans to consider tax increases as part of a package to avert the $85 billion in reductions over the next seven months.


But the president and his Republican adversaries said they would not carry the fight over the cuts into a coming legislative effort to finance the government through Sept. 30, essentially declaring a cease-fire in the budget wars that have dominated Washington since 2011.


The showdown in December over the so-called fiscal cliff yielded $620 billion in tax increases over 10 years. The across-the-board spending cuts now going into force will cut deficits an additional $1.2 trillion.


Both sides indicated that for now, that may be enough — a fiscal peace through political exhaustion. The two parties are now expected to move to a broader argument over the right level of taxes and spending as they seek to develop a new budget for the coming year and beyond. Republicans said they welcomed a return to a more orderly budget process but warned they would not give in on their basic principles.


“I will not be part of any back-room deal, and I will absolutely not agree to increase taxes,” said Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader.


After a public relations blitz lasting weeks that was aimed at stopping the cuts, Mr. Obama said he was prepared to extend a stopgap law that finances the government to March 27 if Republicans stuck to an agreement worked out in 2011 about the level of federal spending. The decision will most likely allow the across-the-board spending reductions to remain in place for months if not years.


White House officials and Senate Democrats had considered making one last stand around the March 27 deadline, declaring the Senate would not pass another government spending plan unless it undid the across-the-board cuts. But Senate Democrats were leery. The first furloughs are likely to hit in April, and the Democrats feared that little political pressure would have built on Republicans before the current stopgap spending law expired.


On Friday, Mr. Obama used janitors and security guards as examples of federal employees whose pay will be cut because of the reductions. “They’ve got to figure out how to manage that,” he said.


In fact, as pointed out by The Washington Post’s Fact Checker, Capitol officials e-mailed the building’s staff to say that the president’s comment was not true. The Capitol’s sergeant-at-arms, who is in charge of the building’s officers, said that, “None of my employees will have their pay cut nor will they face furloughs.”


In his weekly address on Saturday morning, the president acknowledged that the reductions would not affect everyone equally.


“While not everyone will feel the pain of these cuts right away, the pain will be real,” Mr. Obama said. “Many middle-class families will have their lives disrupted in a significant way.”


And heading into the weekend, some officials seemed eager to offer reassurance that government would continue to function despite the deep cuts.


While Leon E. Panetta, who just left the job of defense secretary, had thundered about the critical risk to national security — and lamented what he viewed as a shift of Washington’s political class away from good governance — his successor, Chuck Hagel, spoke in more conciliatory terms.


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Comings and goings at 'Downton Abbey' next season


NEW YORK (AP) — Shirley MacLaine will be returning to "Downton Abbey" next season, and opera star Kiri Te Kanawa is joining the cast.


MacLaine will reprise her role as Martha Levinson, Lord Robert Crawley's freewheeling American mother-in-law, Carnival Films and "Masterpiece" on PBS said Saturday. MacLaine appeared in episodes early last season.


New Zealand-born soprano Te Kanawa will play a house guest. She will sing during her visit.


Other new cast members and characters include:


— Tom Cullen as Lord Gillingham, described as an old family friend of the Crawleys who visits the family as a guest for a house party (and who might be the one to mend Lady Mary Crawley's broken heart).


— Nigel Harman will play a valet named Green.


— Harriet Walter plays Lady Shackleton, an old friend of the Dowager Countess.


— Joanna David will play a guest role as the Duchess of Yeovil.


— Julian Ovenden is cast as aristocrat Charles Blake.


"The addition of these characters can only mean more delicious drama, which is what 'Downton Abbey' is all about," said "Masterpiece" executive producer Rebecca Eaton.


Meanwhile, the producers have confirmed that villainous housemaid Sarah O'Brien won't be back. Siobhan Finneran, who played her, is leaving the show.


These announcements come shortly after the third season's airing in the United States. It concluded with the heartbreaking death of popular Matthew Crawley in a car crash, leaving behind his newborn child and loving wife, Lady Mary Crawley.


Matthew's untimely demise was the result of the departure from the series by actor Dan Stevens, who had starred in that role.


The third season also saw the shocking death of Lady Sybil Branson, who died during childbirth. She was played by the departing Jessica Brown Findlay.


Last season the wildly popular melodrama, set in early 20th century Britain, was the most-watched series on PBS since Ken Burns' epic "The Civil War," which first aired in 1990. The Nielsen Co. said 8.2 million viewers saw the "Downton" season conclusion.


"Downton Abbey," which airs on the "Masterpiece" anthology, won three Emmy awards last fall, including a best supporting actress trophy for Maggie Smith (the Dowager Countess), who also won a Golden Globe in January.


In all, the series has won nine Emmys, two Golden Globes and a Screen Actors Guild Award for the ensemble cast, which is the first time the cast of a British television show has won this award.


Hugh Bonneville, Michelle Dockery, Elizabeth McGovern, Jim Carter and Brendan Coyle are among its other returning stars.


___


Online:


http://www.pbs.org/downton


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U.S. Judges Offer Addicts a Way to Avoid Prison


Todd Heisler/The New York Times


Emily Leitch of Brooklyn, with her son, Nazir, 4, was arrested for importing cocaine but went to “drug court” to avoid prison.







Federal judges around the country are teaming up with prosecutors to create special treatment programs for drug-addicted defendants who would otherwise face significant prison time, an effort intended to sidestep drug laws widely seen as inflexible and overly punitive.




The Justice Department has tentatively embraced the new approach, allowing United States attorneys to reduce or even dismiss charges in some drug cases.


The effort follows decades of success for “drug courts” at the state level, which legal experts have long cited as a less expensive and more effective alternative to prison for dealing with many low-level repeat offenders.


But it is striking that the model is spreading at the federal level, where judges have increasingly pushed back against rules that restrict their ability to make their own determination of appropriate sentences.


So far, federal judges have instituted programs in California, Connecticut, Illinois, New Hampshire, New York, South Carolina, Virginia and Washington. About 400 defendants have been involved nationwide.


In Federal District Court in Brooklyn on Thursday, Judge John Gleeson issued an opinion praising the new approach as a way to address swelling prison costs and disproportionate sentences for drug trafficking.


“Presentence programs like ours and those in other districts mean that a growing number of courts are no longer reflexively sentencing federal defendants who do not belong in prison to the costly prison terms recommended by the sentencing guidelines,” Judge Gleeson wrote.


The opinion came a year after Judge Gleeson, with the federal agency known as Pretrial Services, started a program that made achieving sobriety an incentive for drug-addicted defendants to avoid prison. The program had its first graduate this year: Emily Leitch, a Brooklyn woman with a long history of substance abuse who was arrested entering the country at Kennedy International Airport with over 13 kilograms of cocaine, about 30 pounds, in her luggage.


“I want to thank the federal government for giving me a chance,” Ms. Leitch said. “I always wanted to stand up as a sober person.”


The new approach is being prompted in part by the Obama administration, which previously supported legislation that scaled back sentences for crimes involving crack cocaine. The Justice Department has supported additional changes to the federal sentencing guidelines to permit the use of drug or mental health treatment as an alternative to incarceration for certain low-level offenders and changed its own policies to make those options more available.


“We recognize that imprisonment alone is not a complete strategy for reducing crime,” James M. Cole, the deputy attorney general, said in a statement. “Drug courts, re-entry courts and other related programs along with enforcement are all part of the solution.”


For nearly 30 years, the United States Sentencing Commission has established guidelines for sentencing, a role it was given in 1984 after studies found that federal judges were giving defendants widely varying sentences for similar crimes. The commission’s recommendations are approved by Congress, causing judges to bristle at what they consider interference with their judicial independence.


“When you impose a sentence that you believe is unjust, it is a very difficult thing to do,” Stefan R. Underhill, a federal judge in Connecticut, said in an interview. “It feels wrong.”


The development of drug courts may meet resistance from some Republicans in Congress.


“It is important that courts give deference to Congressional authority over sentencing,” Representative F. James Sensenbrenner Jr., Republican of Wisconsin, a member and former chairman of the Judiciary Committee, said in a statement. He said sentencing should not depend “on what judge happens to decide the case or what judicial circuit the defendant happens to be in.”


At the state level, pretrial drug courts have benefited from bipartisan support, with liberals supporting the programs as more focused on rehabilitation, and conservatives supporting them as a way to cut spending.


Under the model being used in state and federal courts, defendants must accept responsibility for their crimes and agree to receive drug treatment and other social services and attend regular meetings with judges who monitor their progress. In return for successful participation, they receive a reduced sentence or no jail time at all. If they fail, they are sent to prison.


The drug court option is not available to those facing more serious charges, like people accused of being high-level dealers or traffickers, or accused of a violent crime. (These programs differ from re-entry drug courts, which federal judges have long used to help offenders integrate into society after prison.)


In interviews, the federal judges who run the other programs pointed to a mix of reasons for their involvement.


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DealBook: Buffett’s Annual Letter Plays Up Newspapers’ Value

Over the last half-century, Warren E. Buffett has built a reputation as a contrarian investor, betting against the crowd to amass a fortune estimated at $54 billion.

Mr. Buffett underscored that contrarian instinct in his annual letter to shareholders published on Friday. In a year when Mr. Buffett did not make any large acquisitions, he bought dozens of newspapers, a business others have shunned. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, has bought 28 dailies in the last 15 months.

“There is no substitute for a local newspaper that is doing its job,” he wrote.

Those purchases, which cost Mr. Buffett a total of $344 million, are relatively minor deals for Berkshire, and just a small part of the giant conglomerate. Mr. Buffett bemoaned his inability to do a major deal in 2012. “I pursued a couple of elephants, but came up empty-handed,” he said. “Our luck, however, changed earlier this year.”

Mr. Buffett was making a reference to one of his largest-ever deals. Last month, Berkshire, along with a Brazilian investment group, announced a $23.6 billion takeover,of the ketchup maker H. J. Heinz.

Written in accessible prose largely free of financial jargon, Berkshire’s annual letter holds appeal far beyond Wall Street. This year’s dispatch contained plenty of Mr. Buffett’s folksy observations about investing and business that his devotees relish.

“More than 50 years ago, Charlie told me that it was far better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than to buy a fair business at a wonderful price,” Mr. Buffett wrote, referring to his longtime partner at Berkshire, Charlie Munger.

Mr. Buffett also struck a patriotic tone, directly appealing to his fellow chief executives “that opportunities abound in America.” He noted that the United States gross domestic product, on an inflation-adjusted basis, had more than quadrupled over the last six decades.

“Throughout that period, every tomorrow has been uncertain,” he wrote. “America’s destiny, however, has always been clear: ever-increasing abundance.”

The letter provides more than entertainment value and patriotic stirrings, delivering to Berkshire shareholders an update on the company’s vast collection of businesses. With a market capitalization of $250 billion, Berkshire ranks among the largest companies in the United States.

Its holdings vary, with big companies like the railroad operator Burlington Northern Santa Fe and the electric utility MidAmerican Energy, and smaller ones like the running-shoe outfit Brooks Sports and the chocolatier See’s Candies. All told, Berkshire employs about 288,000 people.

The letter, once again, did not answer a question that has vexed Berkshire shareholders and Buffett-ologists: Who will succeed Mr. Buffett, who is 82, as chief executive?

Last year, he acknowledged that he had chosen a successor, but he did not name the candidate.

He has said that upon his death, Berkshire will split his job in three, naming a chief executive, a nonexecutive chairman and several investment managers of its publicly traded holdings.

In 2010, he said that his son, Howard Buffett, would succeed him as nonexecutive chairman.

Berkshire’s share price recently traded at a record high, surpassing its prefinancial crisis peak reached in 2007 and rising about 22 percent over the last year.

The company reported net income last year of about $14.8 billion, up about 45 percent from 2011. Yet the company’s book value, or net worth — Mr. Buffett’s preferred performance measure — lagged the broader stock market, increasing 14.4 percent, compared with the market’s 16 percent return.

Mr. Buffett lamented that 2012 was only the ninth time in 48 years that Berkshire’s book value increase was less than the gain of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. But he pointed out that in eight of those nine years, the S.& P. had a gain of 15 percent or more, suggesting that Berkshire proved to be a most valuable investment during bad market periods.

“We do better when the wind is in our face,” he wrote.

For Berkshire’s largest collection of assets, its insurance operations, the wind has been at its back. We “shot the lights out last year” in insurance, Mr. Buffett said.

He lavished praise on the auto insurer Geico, giving a special shout-out to the company’s mascot, the Gecko lizard.

Investors also keep a keen eye on changes in Berkshire’s roughly $87 billion stock portfolio. Its holdings include large positions in iconic companies like International Business Machines, Coca-Cola, American Express and Wells Fargo. He said Berkshire’s investment in each of those was likely to increase in the future.

“Mae West had it right: ‘Too much of a good thing can be wonderful,’ ” Mr. Buffett wrote.

He also complimented two relatively new hires, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who now each manage about $5 billion in stock portfolios for Berkshire. Both men ran unheralded, modest-size money management firms before Mr. Buffett plucked them out of obscurity and moved them to Omaha to work for him.

He called the men “a perfect cultural fit” and indicated that the two would manage Berkshire’s entire stock portfolio once he steps aside. “We hit the jackpot with these two,” Mr. Buffett said, noting that last year, each outperformed the S.& P. by double-digit margins.

Then, sheepishly, employing supertiny type, he wrote: “They left me in the dust as well.”

A former paperboy and member of the Newspaper Association of America’s carrier hall of fame, Mr. Buffett devoted nearly three out of 24 pages of his annual report to newspapers.

While Mr. Buffett has been a longtime owner of The Buffalo News and a stakeholder in The Washington Post Company, he told shareholders four years ago that he wouldn’t buy a newspaper at any price.

But his latest note reflects how much his opinion has turned. His buying spree started in November 2011, when he struck a deal to buy The Omaha World-Herald Company, this hometown paper, for a reported $200 million. By May 2012, he bought out the chain of newspapers owned by Media General, except for The Tampa Tribune. In recent months, he continued to express his interest in buying more papers “at appropriate prices — and that means a very low multiple of current earnings.”

“Papers delivering comprehensive and reliable information to tightly bound communities and having a sensible Internet strategy will remain viable for a long time,” wrote Mr. Buffett.

Mr. Buffett said in a telephone interview last month that he would consider buying The Morning Call of Allentown, Pa., a paper that the Tribune Company is considering selling. But Mr. Buffett said he had not contacted Tribune executives.

“It’s solely a question of the specifics of it and the price,” he said about the Allentown paper. “But it’s similar to the kinds of communities that we bought papers in.”

Mr. Buffett has plenty of cash to make more newspaper acquisitions. To cover his portion of the Heinz purchase, Mr. Buffett will deploy about $12 billion of Berkshire’s $42 billion cash hoard. That leaves a lot of money for Mr. Buffett to continue his shopping spree for newspapers — and more major deals like Heinz.

“Charlie and I have again donned our safari outfits,” Mr. Buffett wrote, “and resumed our search for elephants.”

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Euro Watch: Euro Zone Unemployment Rose to New Record in February


PARIS — The unemployment rate in the euro zone edged up in January to a new record, official data showed Friday, as the ailing European economy continued to weigh on the job market.


Unemployment in the 17-nation euro zone stood at 11.9 percent in January, up from 11.8 percent in December, and from 10.8 percent in January 2012, Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, reported from Luxembourg.


For the 27 nations of the European Union, the January jobless rate stood at 10.8 percent, up from 10.7 percent in December. All of the figures were seasonally adjusted.


A separate Eurostat report showed price pressures easing in February. In the euro zone, the annual inflation rate came in at 1.8 percent, down from 2.0 percent in January, and below the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target.


The jobless data “suggest that wage growth is set to weaken from already low rates” and further depress consumer spending, which has already been damped by government austerity measures, Jennifer McKeown, an economist at Capital Economics in London, wrote in a research note.


Ms. McKeown noted that the low inflation numbers and high joblessness “should leave the E.C.B.’s policy options open,” and she said it was possible the central bank “might discuss an interest rate cut or other unconventional policies” when its governing council meets on Thursday.


There was a small bit of bright news Friday. A survey of European purchasing managers by Markit, a data and research firm, showed German manufacturing output growing in February for second straight month, as new business levels improved. The composite German purchasing managers’ index improved to 50.3 in February — just above the level that signals growth — from 49.8 in January.


“German industry is clearly rebounding and taking advantage from better external traction,” Gilles Moëc, an economist at Deutsche Bank in London, wrote.


Employment is sometimes seen as a lagging indicator of economic growth, since companies try to avoid adding to their costs until they are convinced that a rebound is at hand. Despite the green sprouts in German industry, there are few signs that recovery is certain. Markit’s overall euro zone purchasing managers’ index was unchanged in February, at 47.9, a level that signals continued contraction.


European unemployment bottomed in early 2008, just as the financial crisis was getting in motion, and has been on a rising trend ever since. The January numbers were the highest since the creation of the euro.


In absolute terms, Eurostat estimated Friday, 19 million people in the euro zone and more than 26 million people in the overall European Union. were unemployed.


Spain’s unemployment rate in January was 26.2 percent, and Portugal’s was 17.6 percent. Austria, at just 4.9 percent, had the lowest rate, followed by Germany and Luxembourg, both of which stood at 5.3 percent.


Greece’s unemployment rate in November, the latest month for which Eurostat has figures for the country, was 27 percent.


France, the second-largest euro-zone economy after Germany, had a 10.6 percent jobless rate in January. In Britain, not a euro member, the jobless rate stood at 7.7 percent.


Those numbers compare with the United States, where the January unemployment rate stood at 7.9 percent. In Japan, 4.2 percent of the work force was counted as unemployed in December.


This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: March 1, 2013

An earlier version of this article carried a headline that misstated the month of the data. The report was for January, not February.



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Lindsay Lohan driving case returns to LA court


LOS ANGELES (AP) — Lindsay Lohan's attorney returns to court Friday for a hearing in the actress's latest criminal case, as discussions continue about a possible plea deal before trial.


The 26-year-old isn't required to attend the hearing.


The hearing is intended to take care of any issues before a March 18 trial on misdemeanor charges that Lohan lied to police about a June car crash and was driving recklessly.


Attorney Mark Heller also plans to meet with prosecutors Friday to try to negotiate a plea deal. He wants to delay the case so Lohan can pursue psychotherapy and perform community service.


Lohan was on probation at the time of the accident and she faces jail time if a judge determines she violated her sentence in a 2011 theft case.


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The New Old Age Blog: Why Can’t I Live With People Like Me?

“Aging in place” is the mantra of long-term care. Whether looking at reams of survey data, talking to friends or wishing on a star, who among us wouldn’t rather spend the final years — golden or less so — at home, surrounded by our cherished possessions, in our own bed, no cranky old coot as a roommate, no institutional smells or sounds, no lukewarm meals on a schedule of someone else’s making?

That works best, experts tell us, in dense cities, where we can hail a cab at curbside, call the superintendent when something breaks and have our food delivered from Fresh Direct or countless takeout restaurants. We’d have neighbors in the apartment above us, below us, just on the other side of the wall. Hearing their toilets flush and their children ride tricycles on uncarpeted floors is a small inconvenience compared to the security of knowing they are so close by in an emergency.

Urban planners, mindful that most Americans live in sprawling, car-reliant suburbs, are designing more elder-friendly, walkable communities, far from “real” cities. Houses and apartments are built around village greens, with pockets of commerce instead of distant strip malls. Some have community centers for congregate meals and activities; others share gardens, where people can get their hands in the warm spring dirt long after they can push a lawn mower.

All of this is a step in the right direction, despite the Potemkin-village look of so many of them. But it doesn’t take into account those who are too infirm to stay at home, even in cities or more manageable suburban environments. Some are alone, others with a loving spouse who by comparison is “well” but may not be for long, given the rigors of care-taking. It doesn’t take into account people who can’t afford a home health aide, who don’t qualify for a visiting nurse, who have no adult children to help them or whose children live far away.

But by now, aging in place, unrealistic for some, scary or unsafe for others and potentially very isolating, has become so entrenched as the right way to live out one’s life that not being able to pull it off seems a failure, yet another defeat at a time when defeats are all too plentiful. Are we making people feel guilty if they can’t stay at home, or don’t want to? Are we discouraging an array of other solutions by investing so much, program-wise and emotionally, in this sine qua non?

Regular readers of The New Old Age know that I am single, childless and terrified of falling off a ladder while replacing a light bulb, breaking a hip and lying on the floor, unattended, until my dog wails so loudly a neighbor comes by to complain. A MedicAlert pendant is not something that appeals to me at 65, but even if I give in to that, say at 75, I’m not sure my life will be richer for digging my heels in and insisting home is where I should be.

So I spend a lot of time thinking about the alternatives. I know enough to distinguish between naturally-occurring-retirement communities, or NORCs (some of which work better than others); age-restricted housing complexes (with no services); assisted living (which works fine when you don’t really need it and not so fine when you do); and continuing care retirement communities (which require big upfront payments and extensive due diligence to be sure the place doesn’t go belly up after you get there).

What I find so unappealing about all these choices is that each means growing old among people with whom I share no history. In these congregate settings, for the most part, people are guaranteed only two things in common: age and infirmity. Which brings us to what is known in the trade as “affinity” or “niche” communities,” long studied by Andrew J. Carle at the College of Health and Human Services at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.

Mr. Carle, who trains future administrators of senior housing complexes, was a media darling a few years back, before the recession, with the first baby boomers approaching 65 and niche communities that included services for the elderly — not merely warm-weather developments adjacent to golf courses — expected to explode. In newspaper interviews as recently as 2011, Mr. Carle said there were “about 100 of them in existence or on the drawing board,” not counting the large number of military old-age communities.

Mr. Carle still believes that better economic times, when they come, will reinvigorate this sector of senior housing, after the failure of some in the planning stages and others in operation. In an e-mail exchange, Mr. Carle said there were now about 70 in operation, with perhaps 50 of those that he has defined as University Based Retirement Communities, adjacent to campuses and popular with alumni, as well as non-alumni, who enjoy proximity to the intellectual and athletic activities. Among the most popular are those near Dartmouth, Oberlin, the University of Alabama, Penn State, Notre Dame, Stanford and Cornell.

At the height of the “affinity” boom, L.G.B.T.-assisted living communities and nursing homes were all the rage, seen as a solution to the shoddy treatment that those of different sexual orientations in the pre-Stonewall generation experienced in generic facilities. A few failed, most never got built and, by all accounts, the only one to survive is the pricy Rainbow Vision community in Sante Fe, N.M.

A handful of nudist elder communities, and ones for old hippies, also fell by the wayside, perhaps too free-spirited for the task. According to Mr. Carle, despite the odds, at least one group of RV enthusiasts has added an assisted-living component to what began as collections of transient elderly, looking only for a parking spot and necessary water and power hook-ups for their trailers. Native Americans have made a go of an assisted-living community in Montana, and Asians have done the same in Northern California.

But professional affinity communities, which I find most appealing, are few and far between.

The storied Motion Picture & Television Country House and Hospital, a sliding-scale institution in the San Fernando Valley since 1940, survived near-closure in 2009 as a result of litigation, activism by the Screen Actors Guild and the local chapter of the Teamsters, and news media pressure. Among film legends who died there — along with cameramen, back-lot security guards and extras — were Mary Astor, Joel McCrea, Yvonne De Carlo and Stepin Fetchit.

New York State’s volunteer firefighters are all welcome to a refurbished facility in the Catskill region that offers far more in the way of care and activities, including a state-of-the-art gym, than when I visited there five years ago. At that time, the residents amused themselves by activating the fire alarm to summon the local hook and ladder company, which didn’t mind a bit.

Then there is Nalcrest, the retirement home for unionized letter carriers. Even as post offices nationwide are preparing to eliminate Saturday service, and snail mail becomes an artifact, the National Association of Letter Carriers holds monthly fees around the $500 mark, is located in central Florida so its members no longer have to brave rain and sleet to complete their appointed rounds, and bans dogs, the bane of their existence.

So why not aged journalists? We surely have war stories to embroider as we rock on the porch. Perhaps a mimeograph machine to produce an old-fashioned, dead-tree newspaper, which some of us will miss once it has given way to Web sites like this one. Pneumatic tubes, one colleague suggested, to whisk our belongings upstairs when we can no longer carry them. Other colleagues wondered about welcoming both editors and reporters. How can these two groups, which some consider natural adversaries, complain about each others’ tin ears or missed deadlines if we’re not segregated?

I disagree. The joy of this profession is its collaboration. We did the impossible day after day when young. We belong together when old.


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Off the Charts: Globalization, as Measured by Investment, Takes a Step Backward





A FEW years ago, capital was flying around the globe faster than it ever had. The world economy became more tightly integrated and technology contributed to making it easier for banks and investors to deploy their money on the other side of the world if prospects looked more attractive there.




Then came the financial crisis, which, the McKinsey Global Institute noted in a report issued this week, “upended many of the world’s assumptions about the inevitability of growth and globalization.”


Last year, the report estimated, world capital flows were 13 percent below the levels of the previous year. And while they were higher than during the depths of the credit crisis, they are still 61 percent below the peak levels of 2007.


“Some of the shifts under way represent a healthy correction of the excesses of the bubble years,” the report stated, but there is a risk the reversal of globalization will be overdone.


“If we move to a system where the global financial system is more balkanized, that will raise the cost of capital for more borrowers and perhaps slow economic growth,” said Susan Lund, a principal of McKinsey Global Institute and the primary author of the report.


The accompanying charts show the institute’s estimates of global capital flows, which totaled $4.6 trillion in 2012, down from $11.8 trillion in 2007. Of the 2007 total, $10.2 trillion went to developed countries, and $1.6 trillion went to developing countries. Last year, capital flows were $3.1 trillion, a decline of 69 percent, for the developed countries, and $1.5 trillion, a decline of 10 percent, for the others.


The charts break out the flows into four types. The most stable is foreign direct investment, in which a company either builds a business or acquires at least 10 percent of an existing business. By far the least stable is loans, which are often short term and can be withdrawn on short notice, creating havoc. The others are bonds and equity, meaning stock market investments.


The Asian currency crisis of the late 1990s taught developing countries the potential hazards of loans that can be here today and gone tomorrow — a lesson that some European countries ignored to their regret. The institute calculated that in 2006 and 2007, the amount of capital flowing into Ireland was more than twice as large as the country’s gross domestic product. Moreover, most of that was in loans and bonds, debt instruments that in many cases could not be repaid.


International loans and bond issuances have particularly declined in Western Europe, where the euro crisis led many to withdraw funds and caused banks to concentrate on local markets. During four years in the middle of the last decade, more than $1 trillion in Western European bonds were purchased by foreigners each year. In each of the last two years, more bonds were sold back to the issuing country than were newly sold internationally.


For a number of years, China was the largest recipient of foreign direct investment, and that continues, with as estimated $260 billion flowing in last year. But it also sent $120 billion in such investment to other countries, about the same as Japan and more than was sent by any other country except the United States, according to the estimates.


Floyd Norris comments on finance and the economy at nytimes.com/economix.



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U.S. Economy Barely Grew in Fourth Quarter, Revision Shows


Breathe a tiny sigh of relief, if not exactly contentment: the American economy grew just barely in the last quarter of 2012.


Output expanded at an annual rate of just 0.1 percent, which is basically indistinguishable from having no growth at all and is far below the growth needed to get unemployment back to normal. But at least the economy did not shrink, as the Commerce Department had originally estimated last month, when the first report suggested that output contracted by an annual rate of 0.1 percent.


The department’s latest estimate for economic output, released Thursday, showed that growth was depressed by declines in military spending (possibly in anticipation of the across-the-board spending cuts set to begin Friday) and the amount that companies restored their stockroom shelves.


“The good news with business inventories is that what they take away in one quarter they tend to add to the next,” said Paul Ashworth, senior United States economist at Capital Economics, referring to the measure of this restocking process. “So there’s a good chance that first-quarter numbers will be better than originally thought.”


The output growth number was revised upward from the original estimate partly thanks to updated, and improved, data on business investment and net trade. Imports were lower than previously reported and exports were higher.


Economists expect that government spending will continue to drag on the economy this year, especially if Congress does not avert the spending cuts, which would shave around 0.6 percentage point off growth. Many are hoping that even if the cuts go through, Congress will reverse them in short order.


“They can always change their minds when they have to renew the continuing budget resolution at the end of this month or in April or May,” said Mr. Ashworth. “My expectation is that at most the cuts stay a month or two, and in most departments, with a wink or a nod, they won’t do anything crazy.”


Even if government does lop off $85 billion in the so-called sequester, as current law states, the private sector will offset most of this drag, thanks to the housing recovery and other sources of strength. Forecasts for the first quarter are for annual growth around 2.4 percent to 3 percent.


Monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve, while under fire from some Republicans, is also helping offset the fiscal contraction.


“With monetary policy working with a lag and still being eased, the boost to the economy is probably still growing,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief United States economist at High Frequency Economics.


The combination of monetary expansion and fiscal tightening has helped lead to a painfully slow drawdown in the unemployment rate. The jobless rate stood at 7.9 percent in January. The recent end of the payroll tax holiday is also expected to hold back consumer spending, and so job growth as well.


“I think it’s largely steady as she goes for employment,” said Jay Feldman, an economist at Credit Suisse, of the indications from the latest growth report. “I still think we’re in kind of a 175,000-jobs-a-month clip for a while, but with some downside risks later in the year from the sequester.”


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Donald Trump returns to the 'Apprentice' boardroom


NEW YORK (AP) — There is something Donald Trump says he doesn't know.


Trump has welcomed a reporter to his 26th-floor corner office in Trump Tower to talk about "All-Star Celebrity Apprentice." And here in person, this one-of-a-kind TV star, billionaire businessman, ubiquitous brand mogul and media maestro strikes a softer pose than he has typically practiced in his decades on public display.


Relaxed behind a broad desk whose mirror sheen is mostly hidden by stacks of paper that suggest work is actually done there, Trump is pleasant, even chummy, with a my-time-is-your-time easiness greeting his guest.


He even contradicts his status as a legendary know-it-all with this surprising admission: There's a corner of the universe he doesn't understand.


The ratings woes of NBC, which airs his show, are on Trump's mind at the moment, and as he hastens to voice confidence in the network's powers-that-be ("They will absolutely get it right"), he marvels at the mysteries of the entertainment world.


"If I buy a great piece of real estate and do the right building, I'm really gonna have a success," he says. "It may be MORE successful or LESS successful, but you can sort of predict how it's gonna do. But show business is like trial and error! It's amazing!"


He loves to recall the iffy prospects for "The Apprentice" when it debuted in January 2004. With show biz, he declares, "You NEVER know what's gonna happen."


Except, of course, when you do.


"I do have an instinct," he confides. "Oftentimes, I'll see shows go on and I'll say, 'That show will never make it,' and I'm always right. And I understand talent. Does anybody ask me? No. But if they did, I would be doing them a big service. I know what people want."


So maybe he does know it all. In any case, lots of people wanted "The Apprentice." In its first season, it averaged nearly 21 million viewers each week.


And it gave Trump a signature TV platform that clinched his image as corporate royalty. He presided in a mood-lit stagecraft boardroom where celebrity subjects addressed him as "Mr. Trump" and shrank at that dismissive flick of his wrist and dreaded catchphrase, "You're fired."


The two-hour premiere of "All-Star Celebrity Apprentice" (Sunday at 9 p.m. EST) starts by rallying its 14 veteran contenders in the even more evocative setting of the 2,000-year-old Egyptian Temple of Dendur at the Metropolitan Museum of Art.


There, grandly, Trump receives such returning players as Gary Busey, Stephen Baldwin, LaToya Jackson and reality mean queen Omarosa.


Soon, teammates are chosen by team leaders Bret Michaels and Trace Adkins. Their first assignment: concoct a winning recipe for meatballs, then sell more of them than the rival team.


This is the 13th edition of the "Apprentice" franchise, which has now slipped to less than one-third its original viewership, according to Nielsen Co. figures. But even an audience matching last season's 6.26 million viewers would be pleasant news for NBC, which has recently fallen to fifth place in prime time, behind even Spanish-language Univision.


"I could probably do another show when I don't enjoy 'The Apprentice' anymore," says the 66-year-old Trump, mulling his TV future. "I have been asked by virtually every network on television to do a show for them. But there's something to sticking with what you have: This is a good formula. It works."


Years before "The Apprentice," Trump had hit on a winning formula for himself: Supercharge his business success with relentless self-promotion, putting a human face — his! — on the capitalist system, and embedding his persona in a feedback loop of performance and fame.


Since then, he has ruled as America's larger-than-life tycoon and its patron saint of material success. Which raises the question: Does he play a souped-up version of himself for his audience as Donald Trump, a character bigger and broader than its real-life inspiration?


He laughs, flashing something like a you-got-me smile.


"Perhaps," he replies. "Not consciously. But perhaps I do. Perhaps I do."


It began as early as 1987, when his first book, "Trump: The Art of the Deal," became a huge best-seller.


And even without a regular showcase, he was no stranger to TV. For instance, in the span of just 10 days in May 1997, Trump not only was seen on his "Miss Universe Pageant" telecast on CBS, but also made sitcom cameo appearances as himself on NBC's "Suddenly Susan" and ABC's "Drew Carey Show."


Meanwhile, as a frequent talk-show guest then (as now), he publicized his projects and pushed his brand.


"I'll be on that show for 20 or 30 or 60 minutes, and it costs me nothing," he notes. "When you have an opportunity for promotion, take it! It's free."


No one has ever accused Trump of hiding his light under a bushel. But his promotional drive (or naked craving for attention) has taken him to extremes that conventional wisdom warns against: saying and doing things that might hurt your bottom line.


Item: Trump's noisy, even race-baiting challenge to President Barack Obama to prove his American citizenship. This crusade has earned Trump the title from one editorialist as "birther blowhard."


For an industrialist and entertainer, where's the profit in voicing political views that could tick off a segment of your market or your audience?


"It's a great question, and a hard question to answer, because you happen to be right," Trump begins. "The fact is, some people love me, and some people the-opposite-of-love me, because of what I do and because of what I say. But I'm a very truthful person. By speaking out, it's probably not a good thing for me personally, but I feel I have an obligation to do it."


But isn't he being divisive with some of his pronouncements?


"I think 'divisive' would be a fair word in some cases, not in all cases," he replies. "But I think 'truthful' is another word."


The publicity he got from his political activism reached a fever pitch during his months-long, media-blitzed flirtation with running for president that seemed conveniently to dovetail with the Spring 2011 season of his TV show.


That May, he announced he would not run. For some, it was the final scene of nothing more than political theatrics.


"They weren't," Trump says quietly. "I was very seriously considering running. It was a race that the Republicans should have won. I made a mistake in not running, because I think I would have won."


He says he has no designs on this year's race for mayor of New York. But his politicizing continues apace. In his Twitter feed, with 2 million followers, he continues to bash China and rant about Washington. He phones in to Fox News Channel's "Fox & Friends" each Monday morning to vent his spleen.


"I believe in speaking my mind," he says, "and I don't mind controversy, as you probably noticed. I think sometimes controversy is a good thing, not a bad thing."


Last summer saw the opening in Aberdeen, Scotland, of Trump International Golf Links after a bitter, yearslong fight waged by environmentalists and local residents against government leaders and, of course, Trump.


A man for whom it seems no publicity is bad publicity, Trump insists the controversy helped the project.


"If there wasn't controversy surrounding it, I don't think anybody would even know it exists," he says, laying out the alternative: "I could take an ad: 'Golf course opening.'"


Trump even seems to profit from the harsh attention focused on his hair.


"I get killed on my hair!" he says, with no trace of remorse. But he wants everyone to know, "It's not a wig!" Nor is it an elaborately engineered coif to hide a hairline in retreat, as many Trump-watchers imagine.


To prove it, Trump does a remarkable thing: He lifts the flaxen locks that flop above his forehead to reveal, plain as day, a normal hairline.


"I wash my hair, I comb it, I set it and I spray it," he says. "That's it. I could comb it back and I'd look OK. But I've combed it this way for my whole life. It's become almost a trademark. And I think NBC would be very unhappy if I combed it back, 'cause — you know what? — maybe I wouldn't get as high a rating."


___


Online:


www.nbc.com


___


Frazier Moore is a national television columnist for The Associated Press. He can be reached at fmoore(at)ap.org and at http://www.twitter.com/tvfrazier


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The New Old Age Blog: For the Elderly, Lists of Tests to Avoid

The Choosing Wisely campaign, an initiative by the American Board of Internal Medicine Foundation in partnership with Consumer Reports, kicked off last spring. It is an attempt to alert both doctors and patients to problematic and commonly overused medical tests, procedures and treatments.

It took an elegantly simple approach: By working through professional organizations representing medical specialties, Choosing Wisely asked doctors to identify “Five Things Physicians and Patients Should Question.”

The idea was that doctors and their patients could agree on tests and treatments that are supported by evidence, that don’t duplicate what others do, that are “truly necessary” and “free from harm” — and avoid the rest.

Among the 18 new lists released last week are recommendations from geriatricians and palliative care specialists, which may be of particular interest to New Old Age readers. I’ve previously written about a number of these warnings, but it’s helpful to have them in single, strongly worded documents.

The winners — or perhaps, losers?

Both the American Geriatrics Society and the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine agreed on one major “don’t.” Topping both lists was an admonition against feeding tubes for people with advanced dementia.

“This is not news; the data’s been out for at least 15 years,” said Sei Lee, a geriatrician at the University of California, San Francisco, and a member of the working group that narrowed more than 100 recommendations down to five. Feeding tubes don’t prevent aspiration pneumonia or prolong dementia patients’ lives, the research shows, but they do exacerbate bedsores and cause such distress that people often try to pull them out and wind up in restraints. The doctors recommended hand-feeding dementia patients instead.

The geriatricians’ list goes on to warn against the routine prescribing of antipsychotic medications for dementia patients who become aggressive or disruptive. Though drugs like Haldol, Risperdal and Zyprexa remain widely used, “all of these have been shown to increase the risk of stroke and cardiovascular death,” Dr. Lee said. They should be last resorts, after behavioral interventions.

The other questionable tests and treatments:

No. 3: Prescribing medications to achieve “tight glycemic control” (defined as below 7.5 on the A1c test) in elderly diabetics, who need to control their blood sugar, but not as strictly as younger patients.

No. 4: Turning to sleeping pills as the first choice for older people who suffer from agitation, delirium or insomnia. Xanax, Ativan, Valium, Ambien, Lunesta — “they don’t magically disappear from your body when you wake up in the morning,” Dr. Lee said. They continue to slow reaction times, resulting in falls and auto accidents. Other sleep therapies are preferable.

No. 5: Prescribing antibiotics when tests indicate a urinary tract infection, but the patient has no discomfort or other symptoms. Many older people have bacteria in their bladders but don’t suffer ill effects; repeated use of antibiotics just causes drug resistance, leaving them vulnerable to more dangerous infections. “Treat the patient, not the lab test,” Dr. Lee said.

The palliative care doctors’ Five Things list cautions against delaying palliative care, which can relieve pain and control symptoms even as patients pursue treatments for their diseases.

It also urges discussion about deactivating implantable cardioverter-defibrillators, or ICDs, in patients with irreversible diseases. “Being shocked is like being kicked in the chest by a mule,” said Eric Widera, a palliative care specialist at the San Francisco V.A. Medical Center who served on the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine working group. “As someone gets close to the end of life, these ICDs can’t prolong life and they cause a lot of pain.”

Turning the devices off — an option many patients don’t realize they have — requires simple computer reprogramming or a magnet, not the surgery that installed them in the first place.

The palliative care doctors also pointed out that patients suffering pain as cancer spreads to their bones get as much relief, the evidence shows, from a single dose of radiation than from 10 daily doses that require travel to hospitals or treatment centers.

Finally, their list warned that topical gels widely used by hospice staffs to control nausea do not work because they aren’t absorbed through the skin. “We have lots of other ways to give anti-nausea drugs,” Dr. Widera said.

You can read all the Five Things lists (more are coming later this year), and the Consumer Reports publications that do a good job of translating them, on the Choosing Wisely Web site.


Paula Span is the author of “When the Time Comes: Families With Aging Parents Share Their Struggles and Solutions.”

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DealBook: As Losses Mount, R.B.S. Unveils Plan to Sell Assets

LONDON – The Royal Bank of Scotland, hammered by losses, announced plans on Thursday to sell assets and pare back its investment banking business, in an effort to appease regulators and its biggest shareholder, the British government.

R.B.S. said it planned to sell a stake in the Citizens Financial Group, the American lender it bought in 1988, through an initial public offering in two years. The bank will also continue to reduce its investment banking operations, with plans to cut risky assets and eliminate jobs.

The moves are designed to help bolster the bank’s capital levels and refocus its operations, part of a multiyear turnaround effort initiated by its chief executive, Stephen Hester. In the end, R.B.S. will emerge a much smaller bank, largely focused on Britain.

“R.B.S. is four years into its recovery plan,” Mr. Hester said in a statement, “and good progress has been made. We are a much smaller, more focused and stronger bank. Our target is for 2013 to be the last big year of restructuring.”

Like many rivals, R.B.S. is struggling with the legacy of the financial crisis and a spate of legal issues. On Thursday, it reported a bigger-than-expected loss, in part tied to its legal troubles.

The bank, in which the British government holds an 82 percent stake after a bailout in 2008, posted a net loss of £5.97 billion ($9 billion) in 2012, much larger than the £2 billion loss recorded in 2011. Analysts had been expecting a loss of £5.1 billion. For the last quarter of 2012, R.B.S. reported a £2.6 billion loss, up from a £1.8 billion loss in the period a year earlier.

The rising losses reflect the bank’s regulatory and legal problems.

R.B.S. said on Thursday that it had set aside an additional £1.1 billion to compensate clients to which it improperly sold insurance products, bringing the total provision to £2.2 billion. It also estimated it would have to pay £700 million to compensate small businesses to which it improperly sold some interest-rate hedging products.

The bank agreed this year to pay $612 million to British and American authorities to settle accusations of rate-rigging. Since then, Mr. Hester has promised to tighten controls at the bank to limit the risk of future rate manipulation.

The head of R.B.S.’s investment banking division, John Hourican, resigned at the beginning of February as a result of the scandal related to manipulating the London interbank offered rate, or Libor. The bank plans to pay its fine with money clawed back from bonuses.

‘‘Along with the rest of the banking industry we faced significant reputational challenges,’’ Mr. Hester said in the statement. ‘‘We are determined to overcome the cultural and reputational baggage of precrisis times with the same focus we have applied to the financial cleanup from that era.’’

Eager to get back some of the £45.5 billion it invested in R.B.S., the British government recently increased pressure on the bank’s management to speed up the reorganization.

Some analysts said the government could start selling parts of its investment in the bank, even at a loss, before the next general election, which is set for 2015. R.B.S.’s shares are still trading at about half what the government paid for them in 2008. Some lawmakers said they would favor handing out shares to the public instead of a possible sale of the stake on the open market.

Richard Hunter, head of equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers, said there were signs that Mr. Hester’s efforts to turn around the bank had started to pay off, but that “the ongoing absence of a dividend and overhang of the government stake are negatives which need to be resolved.”

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Clearing a Path for Renewal of Violence Against Women Act





WASHINGTON — Bowing to pressure from within their own party, House Republican leaders last night appeared to clear a path for House passage of the Senate’s broadly bipartisan reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act.


The House Rules Committee, an arm of leadership, approved a bifurcated process to consider the legislation, which would broaden the landmark 1994 law. The House will vote on a Republican version on Thursday that contains provisions that weaken a Senate version that empowers Native American courts to prosecute non-Indians accused of violence on tribal land. The House version also does not explicitly extend programs to prevent domestic violence and treat its victims to members of same-sex relationships.


If that version fails to win passage, the House will take up the Senate-passed version — at this point the likely outcome. That would ensure a swift White House signing ceremony.


The Senate passed that version earlier this month, 78 to 22, with 23 Republicans voting yes, up from 15 last year.


House conservatives maintain that the Senate provision on tribal courts is a dangerous and unconstitutional expansion of tribal power, and they preferred to keep the bill silent on same-sex couples. But the pressure, especially on the tribal issue, was bipartisan. Republican Representatives Darrell Issa of California and Tom Cole of Oklahoma, himself a Chickasaw, pressed hard to toughen the tribal-courts language. Mr. Cole said on Sunday he would try to bring the House bill down if he did not prevail.


Ultimately, it is likely he will. Democrats are united against the Republican version, and Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, the House majority leader, has committed to passing a bipartisan version in the House or none at all.


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9/11 victim's mom upset film used son's last words



NEW CANAAN, Conn. (AP) — A Connecticut woman whose son died in the Sept. 11 attacks at the World Trade Center says she's upset the Oscar-winning movie "Zero Dark Thirty" used a recording of his last words without her permission.



Mary Fetchet of New Canaan told CBS News and the Daily News this week that she was shocked the filmmakers didn't ask if they could use the voicemail her son, Bradley Fetchet, left on her phone while he was on the 89th floor of the World Trade Center's south tower.


The movie about the manhunt for Osama bin Laden begins with the voices of 9/11 victims making their last phone calls.


Sony Pictures Entertainment said in a statement that the filmmakers contacted several relatives of 9/11 victims about using the voice recordings.


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Global Health: After Measles Success, Rwanda to Get Rubella Vaccine


Rwanda has been so successful at fighting measles that next month it will be the first country to get donor support to move to the next stage — fighting rubella too.


On March 11, it will hold a nationwide three-day vaccination campaign with a combined measles-rubella vaccine, hoping to reach nearly five million children up to age 14. It will then integrate the dual vaccine into its national health service.


Rwanda can do so “because they’ve done such a good job on measles,” said Christine McNab, a spokeswoman for the Measles and Rubella Initiative. M.R.I. helped pay for previous vaccination campaigns in the country and the GAVI Alliance is helping financing the upcoming one.


Rubella, also called German measles, causes a rash that is very similar to the measles rash, making it hard for health workers to tell the difference.


Rubella is generally mild, even in children, but in pregnant women, it can kill the fetus or cause serious birth defects, including blindness, deafness, mental retardation and chronic heart damage.


Ms. McNab said that Rwanda had proved that it can suppress measles and identify rubella, and it would benefit from the newer, more expensive vaccine.


The dual vaccine costs twice as much — 52 cents a dose at Unicef prices, compared with 24 cents for measles alone. (The MMR vaccine that American children get, which also contains a vaccine against mumps, costs Unicef $1.)


More than 90 percent of Rwandan children now are vaccinated twice against measles, and cases have been near zero since 2007.


The tiny country, which was convulsed by Hutu-Tutsi genocide in 1994, is now leading the way in Africa in delivering medical care to its citizens, Ms. McNab said. Three years ago, it was the first African country to introduce shots against human papilloma virus, or HPV, which causes cervical cancer.


In wealthy countries, measles kills a small number of children — usually those whose parents decline vaccination. But in poor countries, measles is a major killer of malnourished infants. Around the world, the initiative estimates, about 158,000 children die of it each year, or about 430 a day.


Every year, an estimated 112,000 children, mostly in Africa, South Asia and the Pacific islands, are born with handicaps caused by their mothers’ rubella infection.


Thanks in part to the initiative — which until last year was known just as the Measles Initiative — measles deaths among children have declined 71 percent since 2000. The initiative is a partnership of many health agencies, vaccine companies, donors and others, but is led by the American Red Cross, the United Nations Foundation, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Unicef and the World Health Organization.


This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: February 27, 2013

An earlier version of this article misstated the source of the financing for the upcoming vaccination campaign in Rwanda. It is being financed by the GAVI Alliance, not the Measles and Rubella Initiative.




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Little Movement on Wall Street





Wall Street stocks opened little changed on Wednesday as investors awaited a second round of testimony in Congress by the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, for clarity on the longevity of the Fed’s economic stimulus program.


The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index added 0.2 percent, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.2 percent and the Nasdaq composite index was flat in morning trading.


“Of course, Bernanke is in the spotlight again but I don’t expect him to vary from his comments from yesterday,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York.


A day earlier, Mr. Bernanke strongly defended the Fed’s monetary stimulus efforts before Congress, easing financial market worries over an early retreat from the Fed’s bond buying program, which had been triggered by minutes of the Fed’s January meeting released a week ago.


His remarks, along with data showing sales of new homes hit a four and a half year high, helped Wall Street stocks rebound Tuesday from their worst decline since November.


Despite the bounce, the benchmark S.&P. 500 was unable to move back above 1,500, a closely watched level that may prove to be a resistance point.


Up 6 percent for the year, the S.&P. 500 was within reach of record highs a week ago, before the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting were released. Since then, the index has shed 1 percent.


In earnings news, Target posted a lower quarterly profit as sales of food and value-priced items only partially mitigated weakness in holiday spending. The stock fell 1.7 percent.


Dollar Tree reported a higher quarterly profit as the chain controlled costs and as consumer spending improved. The stock rose 4.5 percent.


In Europe, shares rose, steadying after the previous session’s sharp losses, though jitters over the euro zone kept a lid on gains.


Italy’s 10-year debt costs rose more than half a percentage point at the first longer-term auction since an inconclusive parliamentary election, although they remained below the psychologically important level of 5 percent.


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Euro Watch: European Markets Dip Amid Italian Uncertainty







PARIS — Stocks fell Tuesday across Europe and investors sold Italian bonds, a day after an inconclusive election in Italy raised fears that political deadlock there could hamper efforts to restore the economy and complicate the governance of the euro zone.




European leaders argued for calm, stressing that the political confusion would soon clear up and that negative market reaction would be short-lived as Italians and their European partners returned to the work of building greater integration. But they also stressed that the course of reform started under the current prime minister, Mario Monti, must be continued, for the good of the 17-nation euro zone.


Results indicated that the center-left Democratic Party, led by Pier Luigi Bersani, would have a majority in the Lower House, thanks to the premium of bonus seats given to the largest bloc. But it would only have about 119 seats in the Senate, compared to 117 seats for the center-right People of Liberty party, led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi — far short of the majority of 158 required to govern.


Mr. Berlusconi hinted that his party might be inclined to form a grand coalition with the Democratic Party, a prospect that would be ideologically incoherent but that experts said might be the only governing coalition possible, given the results.


Mr. Monti’s party, which had helped restore investor confidence at the cost of unpopular spending cuts and tax increases, dropped into last place, behind the protest vote winner, the Five Star Movement of the former comedian Beppe Grillo. The result left the recession-weary nation with no clear path forward and the possibility that another round of elections will be necessary.


In afternoon trading in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 index, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, was down 2.29 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in London dipped 1.28 percent. The yield on the Italian 10-year sovereign bond, which moves in the opposite direction of the price, gained 0.31 percentage points, to 4.79 percent. The MIB index in Milan was down 4.23 percent.


Bond yields have a direct effect on government financing costs, and it was the rise in Italian and Spanish government yields that led the European Central Bank to promise last July that it would do whatever necessary to save the euro.


The euro, which fell sharply on Monday, was up slightly at $1.3087 from $1.3056 late Monday in New York.


Uncertainty about the Italian situation has echoed around the world. Asian shares dropped Tuesday, with the Nikkei 225 stock average in Tokyo closing down 2.26 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closing down 1.32 percent. New York stocks ended Monday down more than 1 percent.


Olivier Bailly, a spokesman for the European Commission, the policy making arm of the European Union, on Tuesday urged Italy to form a government and to continue policies aimed at bringing down its public debt.


“The European Commission places its full confidence in Italian democracy, and the European Commission will work closely with the new government in order to relaunch growth and the creation of jobs in Italy,” Mr. Bailly said during a news conference in Brussels.


He suggested that continuing reforms was the best way to combat the instability on financial markets that followed the vote. “Markets are free to react the way they want,” he said. Italian leaders needed to “establish a political majority that will continue to deliver a growth and jobs agenda, which is basically what Italy needs in order to reduce the unsustainable level of its debt.”


According to a recent and wide-ranging study on the reform prospects for countries in the euro zone, the Lisbon Council, a research organization based in Brussels, concluded that Italy ranked last among all countries that use the euro in terms of its ability to generate economic growth over the long term.


Luis de Guindos, the Spanish economy minister, said on Tuesday that he was confident that the negative impact of the Italian vote on financial markets would be “only in the short term.” He told Spanish reporters that Italy would eventually manage to form “a stable government,” which would also be in the interest of Spain and the rest of the euro zone.


Before the election, Germany made very clear its expectations that whoever takes over in Rome must continue to implement the course of reforms begun under Mr. Monti. This line echoed throughout Berlin on Tuesday.


“It is important that Italy have a functioning government,” Michael Grosse-Broemer, an important ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel and parliamentary floor leader of her center-right party, said Tuesday. “Mr. Monti’s course of reform must be continued.”


“There is no alternative to the course of structural reform that has been started,” Philip Rösler, Germany’s economy minister, told the German public broadcaster ARD, adding his disappointment at the apparent lack of support for the country’s pro-reform parties .


Guido Westerwelle, the foreign minister, also called for Italy to swiftly form a “stable and functioning government,” stressing its importance for the rest of Europe.


But Werner Faymann, chancellor of Austria, warned against allowing concerns over the future Italian government to spark another debate over the future of the euro, insisting that the common currency was strong enough to withstand a period of instability.


“The euro remains stable even when it is not yet clear in any given country how a government will be formed,” Mr. Faymann said, according to ARD.


How worried Germans are about what political chaos in Rome could mean for them came across clearly in the German media.


“The election shows that Italy remains susceptible for populist slogan. This is demonstrated by the nearly 25 percent support for the cheap, angry outbursts of the anti-party of comedian Beppe Grillo. And then the 30 percent for Berlusconi,” wrote the daily Tagesspiegel in a commentary on Tuesday, pointing out that amounted to about every second voter supporting a populist.


“It is a very scary prospect that does not engender hope for Italy’s future,” the newspaper wrote. “We are a long way from a cure for the Berlusconi disease.”


David Jolly reported from Paris. Rachel Donadio in Rome, James Kanter in Brussels, Melissa Eddy in Berlin, Raphael Minder in Madrid, and Landon Thomas Jr. in London contributed reporting.


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Reversing trend, world music revenue inches upward


LONDON (AP) — More than a decade after online file swapping tipped the music industry into turmoil, record executives may finally be getting a sliver of good news.


Industry revenue is up. A measly 0.3 percent, but it's still up.


"For the global music business, it is hard to remember a year that has begun with such a palpable buzz in the air," said Frances Moore, whose International Federation of the Phonographic Industry put together the figures released Tuesday.


"These are hard-won successes for an industry that has innovated, battled and transformed itself over a decade," she said in a statement. "They show the music industry has adapted to the Internet world."


That adaptation has been a long time coming. Online song sharing popularized by services such as Napster at the turn of the millennium seriously destabilized the industry, which reacted with a barrage of lawsuits and lobbying. But the war on piracy failed to stem the tide of free music, and by the time executives finally began making legal music available through download services such as Apple Inc.'s iTunes, the industry was in a free fall.


Since its 1999 peak, the global music industry's revenues have crashed more than 40 percent. Tuesday's figures, which show a rise in global revenue from $16.4 billion in 2011 to $16.5 billion in 2012, are the first hint of growth in more than a decade.


Mark Mulligan, of U.K.-based MIDiA consulting, warned that Tuesday's figures did not mean the industry had put its misery years behind it.


"We're probably near the bottom," he said, "but it's so marginal we could easily have another year or two where it could get worse."


The physical music market continues to contract, losing another $500 million in revenue between 2011 and 2012, according to Tuesday's IFPI figures. The industry group has placed its bets on downloads, streaming, and subscription services to make up for lost ground, but there's still a long way to go.


Downloads and streaming audio now account for most of the music sold in the United States and Scandinavia, but physical music — everything from vinyl records to DVDs — still accounts for the majority of industry revenue worldwide.


Mulligan said he believed some of the lost revenue may never be recovered, with many casual users who used to buy the odd CD turning to free services such as YouTube, television music channels, or Internet radio instead.


"This is a case of managed decline," he said, predicting "a sustainable but smaller market built around more engaged music fans."


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Horse Meat in European Beef Raises Questions on U.S. Exposure





The alarm in Europe over the discovery of horse meat in beef products escalated again Monday, when the Swedish furniture giant Ikea withdrew an estimated 1,670 pounds of meatballs from sale in 14 European countries.




Ikea acted after authorities in the Czech Republic detected horse meat in its meatballs. The company said it had made the decision even though its tests two weeks ago did not detect horse DNA.


Horse meat mixed with beef was first found last month in Ireland, then Britain, and has now expanded steadily across the Continent. The situation in Europe has created unease among American consumers over whether horse meat might also find its way into the food supply in the United States. Here are answers to commonly asked questions on the subject.


Has horse meat been found in any meatballs sold in Ikea stores in the United States?


Ikea says there is no horse meat in the meatballs it sells in the United States. The company issued a statement on Monday saying meatballs sold in its 38 stores in the United States were bought from an American supplier and contained beef and pork from animals raised in the United States and Canada.


“We do not tolerate any other ingredients than the ones stipulated in our recipes or specifications, secured through set standards, certifications and product analysis by accredited laboratories,” Ikea said in its statement.


Mona Liss, a spokeswoman for Ikea, said by e-mail that all of the businesses that supply meat to its meatball maker  issue letters guaranteeing that they will not misbrand or adulterate their products. “Additionally, as an abundance of caution, we are in the process of DNA-testing our meatballs,” Ms. Liss wrote. “Results should be concluded in 30 days.”


Does the United States import any beef from countries where horse meat has been found?


No. According to the Department of Agriculture, the United States imports no beef from any of the European countries involved in the scandal. Brian K. Mabry, a spokesman for the department’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, said: “Following a decision by Congress in November 2011 to lift the ban on horse slaughter, two establishments, one located in New Mexico and one in Missouri, have applied for a grant of inspection exclusively for equine slaughter. The Food Safety and Inspection Service (F.S.I.S.) is currently reviewing those applications.”


Has horse meat been found in ground meat products sold in the United States?


No. Meat products sold in the United States must pass Department of Agriculture inspections, whether produced domestically or imported. No government financing has been available for inspection of horse meat for human consumption in the United States since 2005, when the Humane Society of the United States got a rider forbidding financing for inspection of horse meat inserted in the annual appropriations bill for the Agriculture Department. Without inspection, such plants may not operate legally.


The rider was attached to every subsequent agriculture appropriations bill until 2011, when it was left out of an omnibus spending bill signed by President Obama on Nov. 18. The U.S.D.A.  has not committed any money for the inspection of horse meat.


“We’re real close to getting some processing plants up and running, but there are no inspectors because the U.S.D.A. is working on protocols,” said Dave Duquette, a horse trader in Oregon and president of United Horsemen, a small group that works to retrain and rehabilitate unwanted horses and advocates the slaughter of horses for meat. “We believe very strongly that the U.S.D.A. is going to bring inspectors online directly.”


Are horses slaughtered for meat for human consumption in the United States?


Not currently, although live horses from the United States are exported to slaughterhouses in Canada and Mexico. The lack of inspection effectively ended the slaughter of horse meat for human consumption in the United States; 2007 was the last year horses were slaughtered in the United States. At the time financing of inspections was banned, a Belgian company operated three horse meat processing plants — in Fort Worth and Kaufman, Tex., and DeKalb, Ill. — but exported the meat it produced in them.


Since 2011, efforts have been made to re-establish the processing of horse meat for human consumption in the United States. A small plant in Roswell, N.M., which used to process beef cattle into meat has been retooled to slaughter 20 to 25 horses a day. But legal challenges have prevented it from opening, Mr. Duquette said. Gov. Susana Martinez of New Mexico opposes opening the plant and has asked the U.S.D.A. to block it.


Last month, the two houses of the Oklahoma Legislature passed separate bills to override a law against the slaughter of horses for meat but kept the law’s ban on consumption of such meat by state residents. California, Illinois, New Jersey, Tennessee and Texas prohibit horse slaughter for human consumption.


Is there a market for horse meat in the United States?


Mr. Duquette said horse meat was popular among several growing demographic groups in the United States, including Tongans, Mongolians and various Hispanic populations. He said he knew of at least 10 restaurants that wanted to buy horse meat. “People are very polarized on this issue,” he said. Wayne Pacelle, chief executive of the Humane Society of the United States, disagreed, saying demand in the United States was limited. Italy is the largest consumer of horse meat, he said, followed by France and Belgium.


Is horse meat safe to eat?


That is a matter of much debate between proponents and opponents of horse meat consumption. Mr. Duquette said that horse meat, some derived from American animals processed abroad, was eaten widely around the world without health problems. “It’s high in protein, low in fat and has a whole lot of omega 3s,” he said.


The Humane Society says that because horse meat is not consumed in the United States, the animals’ flesh is likely to contain residues of many drugs that are unsafe for humans to eat. The organization’s list of drugs given to horses runs to 29 pages.


“We’ve been warning the Europeans about this for years,” Mr. Pacelle said. “You have all these food safety standards in Europe — they do not import chicken carcasses from the U.S. because they are bathed in chlorine, and won’t take pork because of the use of ractopamine in our industry — but you’ve thrown out the book when it comes to importing horse meat from North America.”


The society has filed petitions with the Department of Agriculture and Food and Drug Administration, arguing that they should test horse meat before allowing it to be marketed in the United States for humans to eat.


This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: February 25, 2013

An earlier version of this article misstated how many pounds of meatballs Ikea was withdrawing from sale in 14 European countries. It is 1,670 pounds, not 1.67 billion pounds.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: February 25, 2013

An earlier version of this article misstated the last year that horses were slaughtered in the United States. It is 2007, not 2006.




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You're the Boss Blog: Critiquing a Web Site That Tries to Keep It Simple

It sounds easy. Sell your product online. Design it to tempt every visitor into becoming a buyer. Add an easy-to-use self-service interface that lets customers get answers without interacting with a salesclerk. Everything seems to happen magically, and everything goes smoothly, without any issues. There may be businesses that manage to accomplish this, but rarely without a few struggles. In this post, we look at one company, Recruiterbox, and its attempt to attract customers and interact with them seemlessly.

Raj Sheth and his two partners created Recruiterbox to help companies organize their recruiting and hiring processes. An entrepreneur from India, Mr. Sheth understood that at many growing companies, the résumés, interviews and internal feedback live “all over the place,” buried in any number of in-boxes, spreadsheets and side conversations. In 2011, Recruiterbox which is based in Boston and Bangalore and has a team of 12 people, introduced a Web-based tool that automates the entire process. Hiring managers can try the service for free for a single job opening; the fee jumps to $60, $120 or $200 per month for three, six or 10 openings, respectively.

When Recruiterbox was introduced, the company stayed away from outbound marketing like e-mail or telemarketing, opting instead to rely on word-of-mouth, postings to human resources and recruitment blogs and a presence in app stores (like Google Apps). This netted their first 100 or so customers (as well as a few media mentions). Still, attracting visitors to the site was slow, and customer growth, while consistent, remained humble — in the low hundreds at the end of the first year. In 2012, the customer base grew to 500.

Mr. Sheth has found that he can generate traffic by answering media queries on HelpAReporterOut.com and by crafting frequent blog and video posts that address important H.R. issues. He also has found that including a transcript with the videos helps boost Recruiterbox’s organic search rankings on Google.

Still, revenue grew only slightly after a few months, so Mr. Sheth created a paid Google AdWords campaign. While the quality of customers that came through this channel was high, larger competitors drove up the bids for popular keywords. As a result, each click cost from $7 to $15 – making AdWords an expensive customer-acquisition channel. The Recruiterbox team kept a fixed budget on their campaign and tweaked the ads, but the cost per paying customer remained high, as much as $500.

After a year, the team began analyzing customer reactions to the sign-up process and pricing structure, which resulted in the company offering more service options. Recruiterbox now handles start-ups and smaller companies — those with fewer jobs to fill — through a self-service tool. The site has found that most of the companies that try the service end up completing the 14-day free trial and electing to continue with the monthly subscription.

But Recruiterbox wants to help larger companies, too — those looking to fill as many as 50 openings. And that’s the challenge: larger clients that want to fill 10 to 25 jobs are much more likely to require an initial service walk-through over the phone to understand how the software works. That of course is a time-consuming burden for a small company.

So the questions facing Mr. Sheth and Recruiterbox are:

Does it make sense for Recruiterbox to focus more attention on one particular customer segment?

• Would concentrating on self-service customers allow Recruiterbox to stick with its original goals and get more business?

• Is that market — companies with fewer positions to fill — large enough?

• Should Recruiterbox add more inside sales people to attract and retain larger companies or is that splintering the business focus?

Some questions for readers to think about while looking at Recruiterbox.com:

• Is it easy to understand?

• Can you tell what it’s offering within 15 seconds of landing on the site?

• Would you register without contacting customer support?

• What are your thoughts on tiered service fees?

• Do those fees represent the right value for the cost?

Next week, we’ll follow up with highlights from your comments and I’ll offer my own impressions along with Mr. Sheth’s response.

Would you like to have your business’s Web site or mobile app reviewed? This is an opportunity for companies looking for an honest (and free) appraisal of their online presence and marketing efforts.

To be considered, please tell us  about your experiences — why you started your site, what works, what doesn’t and why you would like to have the site reviewed — in an e-mail to youretheboss@abesmarket.com.

Richard Demb is co-founder of Abe’s Market, an online marketplace for natural products that is based in Chicago.

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